Sitemap

Member-only story

Reading the Ruck: How Game Theory and Simulation Reveal Strategic Layers in Rugby – from Uni to Six Nations

3 min readMar 27, 2025

By Jefferies

“Rugby is chess played at sprint speed.”

That’s how I’ve come to see it. Underneath the bruising tackles and high-speed offloads lies a silent war of decision-making. But what changes when you move from a university pitch to the Stade de France? How do decisions evolve between MLR, Pro D2, and the Six Nations?

To answer that, I built a few simple simulations – each based on game-theoretic models tailored to the rugby landscape at different levels.

Level 1: University Rugby – The Predictable Player Game

At the university level, decision-making is often reactive rather than strategic. Most teams play a set pattern with little variation – perfect for modeling with a simple static game.

Model:

• 2 strategies: Run or Kick

• Players assume known tendencies (e.g., 70% run, 30% kick)

• Payoffs based on yardage gained and turnover risk

Insights:

• Teams overuse default strategies (like pick-and-go in the red zone)

• Defenders can exploit predictability with hard line speed

• The best response? Introduce low-cost variation – e.g., occasional chip kicks or pull-back passes

--

--

Jefferies Jiang
Jefferies Jiang

Written by Jefferies Jiang

I make articles on AI and leadership.

No responses yet