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Reading the Ruck: How Game Theory and Simulation Reveal Strategic Layers in Rugby – from Uni to Six Nations
By Jefferies
“Rugby is chess played at sprint speed.”
That’s how I’ve come to see it. Underneath the bruising tackles and high-speed offloads lies a silent war of decision-making. But what changes when you move from a university pitch to the Stade de France? How do decisions evolve between MLR, Pro D2, and the Six Nations?
To answer that, I built a few simple simulations – each based on game-theoretic models tailored to the rugby landscape at different levels.
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Level 1: University Rugby – The Predictable Player Game
At the university level, decision-making is often reactive rather than strategic. Most teams play a set pattern with little variation – perfect for modeling with a simple static game.
Model:
• 2 strategies: Run or Kick
• Players assume known tendencies (e.g., 70% run, 30% kick)
• Payoffs based on yardage gained and turnover risk
Insights:
• Teams overuse default strategies (like pick-and-go in the red zone)
• Defenders can exploit predictability with hard line speed
• The best response? Introduce low-cost variation – e.g., occasional chip kicks or pull-back passes